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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.